9 December 2008
STPR: advance briefing
*****************************************************************Strategic Transport Project ReviewScottish Government announcementAdvance briefing from Transform Scotland**********************************************************************************************************************************1. Background*****************************************************************Tomorrow afternoon (Wednesday 10th December), Scottish Government Minister for Transport, Infrastructure and Climate Change Stewart Stevenson MSP is due to announce the publication of the Strategic Transport Projects Review (STPR) in the Scottish Parliament.
The publication of the STPR follows a two-year study carried out by Transport Scotland; the study focuses on transport investment for the period from 2012-2022:
<
http://www.transportscotland.gov.uk/projects/strategic-transport-projects-review>.
The launch of STPR also follows the publication by the Government last Friday of the Scottish Climate Change Bill, which commits the Scottish Government to delivering 80% reduction in climate change emissions by 2050 (on a 1990 base; 77% reductions from today). While other sectors of the economy have seen falls in emissions, the transport sector continues to see increases in climate emissions.
*****************************************************************2. Transform Scotland's top line on the STPR*****************************************************************The key test for the STPR will be whether it delivers reductions in climate change emissions. With the Scottish Government promoting an ambitious climate change bill aimed at reducing emissions by 80%, it will not be credible for the Government to recommend a new set of infrastructure projects that further increases emissions.
We consider investment in active travel and public transport, aligned with implementation of road demand management measures, as the most immediate means by which emissions from the transport sector can be reduced.
Given that transport is already the basket case of climate change policy, further expansion of road-building would be a grave mistake and leave us with no confidence that the Scottish Government's stated aspirations for reducing climate change emissions are genuine.
*****************************************************************3. What a sustainable transport review would include*****************************************************************In September 2008, six transport and environment NGOs (Friends of the Earth Scotland, Scottish Association for Public Transport, Spokes, Sustrans Scotland, Transform Scotland & WWF Scotland) wrote to the Transport Minister to summarise the sorts of investment required in the STPR if the Scottish Government is committed to delivering sustainable transport. The letter is available at <
http://www.transformscotland.org.uk/groups-demand-action-on-sustainable-transport.aspx>.
The groups challenged the Scottish Government to deliver:
* A national programme of investment in the most sustainable modes - walking & cycling
* Priority for buses and multi-occupancy vehicles on main roads
* An inter-city rail network to match the best in Europe
* A strong focus on 'Smarter Choices' measures aimed at tackling peak-hour congestion
* A halt to the growth in air travel, the most polluting and energy inefficient mode of transport.
We wait to see whether the STPR will focus on reversing the key unsustainable trends in transport, namely reducing climate emissions and tackling our national obesity crisis. Pouring more money into new roads will only further damage our environment, and it will certainly provide no incentive for people to take up health-giving modes of transport such as walking and cycling. If the Government was serious about tackling these genuinely strategic requirements then we would be seeing more than a measly 1% of transport expenditure going into walking and cycling projects.
*****************************************************************4. What might, and might not, be announced in the STPR*****************************************************************A major failing of the STPR process has been its failure to carry out a fair and open consultation process. Despite our being the national sustainable transport alliance, representing a wide range of transport groups, we have not been involved by Transport Scotland in the STPR process. This contrasts with the early involvement of a range of industry lobby groups. Given what we know about who Transport Scotland have been talking to, if the STPR turns out to be business-as-usual then it won't surprise us in the slightest.
The comments below are purely speculative; however, we hope they may be of use.
4.1 Road-building: the Second Forth Road BridgeThe Government is likely to re-announce its commitment to constructing a Second Forth Road Bridge. Should the Government choose to continue with the 2FRB proposal rather than repairing the existing Forth Road Bridge, the project's vast cost - up to £4,200 million - will starve sustainable alternatives from investment.
See <
http://archive.transformscotland.org.uk/campaigns/FRA/docs/2008-12_FRA_briefing.pdf> for briefing 'Repair the Forth Road Bridge - and save Scotland £4,000 million' from the ForthRight Alliance.
4.2 More road-building: A9 dualling?Press reports have indicated that the Government is minded to dual the A9 in its entirety from Perth to Inverness, and that it will claim that this is required on road safety grounds. Should the Government decide to take forward this project, it will have to answer the following questions:
(i) Will the Government take immediate action to control illegal speeding on the existing A9 by implementing average speed cameras along the whole length of the route, following on the successful implementation of average speed cameras on the A77 (which has halved fatalities) - see e.g. <
http://www.theherald.co.uk/search/display.var.1790691.0.a77_speed_cameras_cut_deaths_by_50.php>.
(ii) Has the Government calculated whether it could save more lives by investing the likely cost of a dualled A9 - perhaps £800m? - into local road safety measures: traffic calming, speed cameras, driver training, etc.
4.3 Even more road-building: A82 and A96?There have been campaigns for more money to be spent on these two road routes. It remains to be seen how much extra money will be available to spend on these routes given the large financial cost of the above road schemes.
4.4 High-speed railNothing.
4.5 Rail electrification in the Central BeltThe Government is likely to re-announce the 'Edinburgh-Glasgow Improvement Programme', previously announced in September 2007. The project which will electrify the main Edinburgh-Glasgow rail lines as well as to other destinations in the Central Belt such as Dunblane and Cumbernauld. This is a very welcome project; it is long-overdue for work to restart in electrifying Scotland's railways.
4.6 Highland Main Line, and the east coast rail route to AberdeenPress coverage has suggested that the First Minister would support an upgrade of the Highland Main Line (Central Belt to Inverness) - <
http://www.theherald.co.uk/news/news/display.var.2418394.0.salmond_pledge_to_spell_out_a9_plans.php>.
As the Highland Main Line has less capacity than it had in the 19th century, investment in this route is long-overdue. Rail is 27 times safer as a means of travel than the car and it is essential that schemes such as this are fast-tracked to give people a real, and safer, alternative to driving.
4.7 Urban rail and light railWe do not expect the Government to support the proposed Glasgow Crossrail scheme <
http://crossrail.fs-server.com/>, Aberdeen Crossrail, or the proposed re-opening of the Edinburgh South Suburban Railway <
http://www.reopenthesouthsub.org.uk/>.
The SNP’s opposition to the Edinburgh tram network shows their reluctance to prioritise investment in public transport over road-building. The Scottish Government has capped investment in the Edinburgh trams at £500m, while no such limit has been put on the Second Forth Road Bridge proposal - where the project cost has escalated to up to £4,200m.
Edinburgh's proposed tram line 1B (Haymarket-Granton) has Parliamentary consent and a fixed price for the work (£87m). Investment in this project would provide a stimulus for the brownfield Edinburgh Waterfront development: it is deeply unsustainable to subsidise long-distance car commuting through funding a Second Forth Road Bridge while starving urban public transport of investment.
Indeed, it remains to be seen how much investment the STPR will deliver for the cities rather than just subsidising long-distance travel.
4.8 Walking & cyclingNothing. Which would be pretty grim given that most transport is local (40% of all trips are less than 2 miles, 67% of all trips are less than 5 miles; even car trips are mainly local: 26% of car trips are less than 2 miles, and 56% of car trips are less than 5 miles). It would be difficult to conclude that the Government is taking action to reduce obesity and improve the nation's health if the STPR makes no provision for increasing the proportion of journeys made by the active travel modes.
4.9 Smarter ChoicesNothing.
4.10 Road traffic demand managementNothing. Nor is it likely that much reference will be made to the Road Traffic Stabilisation Target which featured in the December 2006 National Transport Strategy, upon which the Government still bases its transport policies.
4.11 Measures to deliver rail-air substitution for longer-distance travelNothing.
4.12 AviationIt is unlikely that the STPR will make any major announcements on Scotland's airports, although we imagine it may well study transport links to airports.
However, given that the draft version of the National Planning Framework 2 made specific commitments to the expansion of both Edinburgh and Glasgow airports, we expect Friday's publication of the revised NPF2 to instead set out the Government's plans on aviation.
*****************************************************************5. Summary*****************************************************************We look forward to tomorrow's announcement.
It is important that the STPR delivers climate change emission reductions. If it doesn't then we would view this as a grave mistake and we will have to conclude that we cannot have confidence in the Government's stated commitments to tackling climate change.