30 April 2012
Tom Hart's news notes, 30 April 2012
News Digest 26 February to 30 April 2012
ENERGY
Scottish Government continues to be criticised from two directions. Firstly, a failure to show how the 2020 target of 100% of net electricity consumed in Scotland coming from renewables will be met. Secondly, there is the view that the economy is being damaged by UK and Scottish efforts to ensure that energy prices are higher than they would otherwise be. The economic recession combined with higher energy prices has been the main factor helping to reduce carbon emissions since 2008 but the challenge is to adjust policies and prices as the economy revives to ensure that cuts in emissions are maintained in ways strengthening a low carbon economy and greater attention to energy conservation and efficiency. Given slow progress on the electrification of road transport, this may lead to an intensification of efforts to improve building insulation in combination with a continuing stabilisation or slight fall in road vehicle kilometres plus improved load factors and relatively straightforward technical advances in public transport.
Energy issues are complicated by the impending closure of the coal-fired Cockenzie power station and by emissions trading restrictions on the expansion of new coal and gas plant lacking viable means of carbon capture and storage. The energy gap to 2020 may be filled by a mix of conservation, a degree of renewable expansion, some new plant using natural gas and able to pump carbon emissions into former North Sea oil wells and cuts in electricity exports. It is also now likely that the nuclear plants at Hunterston and Torness will last longer than previously thought while new proposals for a coal-fired electricity plant at Grangemouth with CCS may be more viable than plans for a coal plant at Hunterston. But it will be difficult for these to be open before 2020.
AVIATION
GIP (owner of Gatwick and London City airports) has bought Edinburgh Airport from BAA for £807m. This will increase competition with BAA Glasgow Airport. Edinburgh is keen to expand longer-haul flights to the East and America. BAA has curtailed plans for investment at Aberdeen Airport due to expectations of lower growth. Prestwick Airport has been offered for sale by its New Zealand-based owner. Airlines have intensified protests at ‘illogical’ rises in UK Air Passenger Duty.
BMI has withdrawn flights from Glasgow and Edinburgh to Leeds/Bradford. Merger of BMI with BA is expected to lead to further route contraction though BA gains additional landing slots at Heathrow. Ryanair is planning to reduce flights from Edinburgh unless landing charges are lowered.
From September, BA will introduce three daily return flights between Aberdeen and London City.
Thomson Airways has announced that it will operate the new Boeing Dreamliner from Glasgow from May 2013 on flights to Cancun and Florida. This fuel-efficient carbon-fibre aircraft will make it easier to develop long-haul flights from intermediate airports, avoiding national hubs.
PORTS & SHIPPING
Stena’s Irish Sea services services have seen a 10% rise in passengers and 17% in freight in the period January to March with a significant contribution coming from the relocation of the Stranraer-Belfast service to Port Ryan last December.
Shetland will have its busiest every cruise season with 59 ships scheduled to call, up 9 on 2011
The Scottish Government Ferries Review has attracted adverse comments ranging from the abolition of RET for freight to a contraction of less-used ferry routes to remote areas while the most-used routes are to receive more vessels and improved frequency. However, the Government has awarded £100,000 to assist the Isle of Jura Development Trust in continuing a summer only passenger ferry from Tayvallich to Craighouse.
Western Ferries has said that the overall impact of government ferry policy will be to raise costs, destroy multi-ticketing with the outcome being higher fares and charges. The company remains interested in providing a commercial service to Arran. Pentland Ferries is considering a Burntisland-Granton passenger service as early as summer 2013.
Balfour Beatty has gained a £13.5m contract to extend the Forth and Clyde Canal to a new sea lock as part of the Helix Regeneration Project.
RAIL
UK government has published its response to the McNulty Report on Rail Delivery. It agrees that there is a need for substantial cuts in rail unit costs aided by rising demand and closer links between infrastructure managers and service providers. Rising usage is seen as the best guarantee of rail jobs and an extensive network. There is to be further consultation on the controversial issue of transparent yet flexible ticketing. Decisions in Scotland will involve the Scottish Government though there will also be a wider reform of ORR giving a smarter regulatory approach and removing government from day-to-day industry involvement.
The Network Rail Consultation on Tramtrains, Cheaper Extensions of Electrification and Community Rail (entitled Alternative Solutions) ended on 30 April. A finalised report is expected later this year but the importance of involvement of city authorities in tramtrain plans is emphasised. Tramtrains and community rail partnerships could also help to cut costs and raise usage on rural routes.
In England, the UK government is planning further devolution of more localised rail services but the Scottish Government favours centralisation though with scope for Metrotrain development around Glasgow and some increase in RTP involvement in more localised issues. SAPT has pressed for full evaluation of lightweight Metrotrains with higher standing capacity on routes within 15 miles of central Glasgow.
Housing and Transport Minister Keith Brown has ruled out tentative suggestions for rail station closures in Greater Glasgow in the Rail 2014 consultation. He has also stated that through services from England will continue to run north of Edinburgh.
First TransPennine will introduce longer and faster trains electrically hauled between Scotland and Manchester by December 2013. New trains have been ordered for this service
Due to the inability to spend the extra £50m of UK funding for Anglo-Scottish sleeper service improvement in the present financial year, this funding will go to Scottish Water but with a similar sum, plus £50m from the Scottish Government, reserved for future spend on sleeper services.
There are further concerns about slippage in the Scottish Rail Electrification programme with Glasgow-Falkirk-Edinburgh not completed until 2017 and the Glasgow-Cumbernauld route in 2015 rather than 2014. But plans to electrify the short stretch from Corkerhill to Paisley Canal may be accelerated, allowing diesel sets to be released for other services. ScotRail have gained a £250,000 Scottish Government grant to trial wi-fi on Edinburgh-Glasgow trains.
Scotsman editorial and feature (12 March) calls for more rail investment to provide the capacity for record levels of passenger usage still rising in recession. See also SAPT letter to Herald 28 March.
BAA Glasgow and the Scottish Government are discussing options for tramtrains to Glasgow Airport or further improvements in bus services. 25% of airport passengers now use the bus service. Other commentators have also called for conventional rail services running through to the east and north of Scotland via the existing Glasgow Crossrail route.
Scottish and UK governments have announced that a high-speed route to Scotland should be agreed by 2015 subject to value for money assessments. Phased construction would follow.
SPT rail fares concession no longer applies on workdays between 16.30 and 18.00 hrs.
Borders Rail campaigners want a longer platform at the Tweedbank terminus to take 11 coach charter trains
BUS, TRAM & TAXI
LibDem transport leader on Edinburgh City Council expects that trams may enter public service by spring 2014 but only the LibDems have given priority to tram extensions to Leith and the south-east biomedical quarter in local election manifestoes. Along with action on potholes, opposition to bus cuts and higher fares were a more prominent feature in local election campaigning throughout Scotland. However, tramtrains have also been seen as a cost-cutting/usage increasing approach in the recent Network Rail consultation.
Almost half of bus trips in Wales are now taken by those entitled to free travel, with Scotland not far behind with 35% of trips being free. This is widely seen as financially and socially unsustainable yet still very popular with an ageing population more likely to vote than younger voters. Editorial in LTT (27 April) asks whether the time has come to consider a fairer system giving more support to younger groups on low incomes or unemployed. It asks whether a universal entitlement to free local bus travel might give better social and economic value than the present system. An alternative might be a local flat fare approach with only those over state pension age having free travel - introduced alongside a more innovative use of BSOG and Local Transport Development Grants. Herald editorial on 28 March claimed ‘Wheels coming off free bus travel’.
Bus lane enforcement has now passed to the city authorities in Edinburgh, Glasgow and Aberdeen – producing an immediate rise in income from fines but with the aim being to ensure that bus lanes are free from disruption, raising bus efficiency and reliability. Edinburgh’s road traffic control team is to relocate to a new bus operations control centre.
Lothian Buses has complained that Scottish Government changes in BSOG have unfairly penalised city buses, forcing a higher rise in fares and cuts in services. First Group say that 1 in 5 services in Glasgow are at risk. It has raised fares for a 5-stop trip from 90p to £1.15. First Scotland East is implementing major bus cuts in Midlothian and East Lothian with one of the two depots in the area to close.
Ralph Roberts, MD of McGills Buses has called for a one year delay to 2013 in the way BSOG is paid plus a 50p charge for concession holders travelling before 9am and a rise in the concession age to 65. He sees the Scottish Government as being ‘pig-headed and obstinate’.
It has been confirmed that the Competition Commission is to investigate the McGills takeover of Arriva, giving it control of 70% of local services south-west of Glasgow. However, there could be advantages in a regulated monopoly – especially if companies were publicly-owned or operating on a non-profit distributing basis. Many First services in Midlothian were duplicating Lothian Bus routes with a better network and financial outcomes possible if Lothian Buses became the sole operator.
Aberdeen and East Lothian Councils are considering council-owned bus companies but, in the latter case, there is an option for publicly-owned Lothian Buses to be extended further into East Lothian.
Scottish councils have been urged to do more to curb the £20m a year spent on taxis for school pupils. In the past three years, Glasgow has spent £10m on school taxi travel and Aberdeen £7m.
Stagecoach is to extend Megabus services into continental Europe and double-deck sleeper coaches are to be introduced between a number of Scottish cities and London. These larger coaches will have 48 seats and tables for use during the day, converting to 43 bunks on night services.
ROADS & PARKING
Petrol and derv prices have again reached record levels with growing evidence that this is reducing car travel and providing a boost to public transport, especially rail. Scotsman editorial on 2 March sought wider use of road fuel discounts in remoter rural areas rather than a limited 5p a litre rebate.
Prime Minister David Cameron has proposed a feasibility study of larger private-sector involvement in road funding, including tolls on new roads and expanded capacity on existing roads and a new Regulator of Roads. Firms might also secure funds from a diversion of Vehicle Excise Duty. The Scottish Government says it has no plans to move in this direction.
Edinburgh City Council is increasing parking charges on the busiest city centre streets to £2.80 an hour but, in many places, city and town centre parking charges have been falling in an effort to fill an increasing number of empty spaces as the recession hits.
After the provision of temporary extra rail and ferry services plus allowing limited road traffic on a specially prepared section of the Kyle railway, the A890 Strathcarron-Strome Ferry road is again fully open to traffic.
The package of road improvements on the M8, M73 and M74 is now costed at over £600m. Contractors are about to be appointed with phased completion over the years to 2017. The work includes replacing the present A8 between Baillieston and Newhouse and is expected to shave 18 minutes from Glasgow-Edinburgh peak journey times.
After 23,600 complaints in one year, Renfrewshire Council has allocated an extra £5.6m for road maintenance in 2012-13. Motoring groups are also seeking action on earlier maintenance of reflective markings and repainting of road-safety linings throughout Scotland. At present, 62.8% were found to be very sub-standard and barely visible.
WALKING & CYCLING
Edinburgh City Council is considering use of volunteers with speed guns to improve observance of extended 20mph speed limits. Spokes has intensified efforts to ensure that Edinburgh makes even greater progress towards a cycle-friendly city. Work has started on a Quality Bike Corridor from the Mound to the King’s Buildings campus in south Edinburgh. Other routes will follow.
At the end of April, hundreds of cyclists converged on Holyrood as part of a campaign for a safer, cycle-friendly Scotland. Scottish Government has agreed to expand on-road cycle training. Action was stimulated by the death of a cyclist in a collision with a cab in Corstorphine in March.
SNP MSP Joe Fitzpatrick has introduced a bill to ban pavement parking and keep crossroads free of obstructions.
A coast to coast John Muir Trail from Dunbar to Helensburgh is planned to celebrate the centenary of the death of National Park pioneer John Muir in 2014. This will also boost local economies.
Recession is having the effect of driving children out of doors as parents cut spend on entertainment and games consoles, relying instead on cheap family outdoor activities close at hand. Research by the RAC Foundation shows that 4 in 5 households in Britain are in ‘transport poverty’, defined as spending more than 10% of income on public and private transport. The highest cost is buying and running a car. On average, 14% of average weekly household spend is now on transport. 21m households were found to spend more than 10% of income on transport compared to only 4m spending more than 10% on heating and lighting.
RESEARCH & STATISTICS
The Irish Government has cut road spending more severely than rail projects though the Dublin Airport rail link has been revised to be a spur from an existing route rather than a north-south Metro with substantial tunnelling. The tunnel link from Heuston station to link with the existing DART north-south service remains a priority. Electrification of the main rail routes from Dublin to Cork and Galway is due to start from 2020 with the Dublin-Belfast line coming later if traffic develops.
Some of the recent fall in bus trips may be due to stronger efforts to reduce fraudulent claims for free travel compensation. There is still scope for fraud through the issue of free tickets for trips longer than those actually taken, allowing a higher level of operator compensation.
In 2011, Forth Road Bridge vehicle crossings rose 3.5% to 24.5m. Vehicles are recorded by a Weigh in Motion station which is now considered reliable. For all of Britain, total vehicle numbers rose 0.3% in 2011 but with buses down 6% and HGVs down 9%.
Research by Institute of Advanced Motorists has found that use of smartphones when driving is a greater threat to road safety than drugs or alcohol
In March, DfT published revised road traffic forecasts for England to 2035. The central forecast is 44% growth in road vehicle miles between 2010 and 2035. This is slightly higher than the previous revision in 2010. Due to a greater rise in lorry and van miles, car growth is estimated at 37%. All of the forecasts have been criticised for projecting a link between revised economic growth and road traffic growth which is not borne out by actual evidence of considerably lower growth since the mid-1990s. The assumed oil price of $130 a barrel has also been queried. However, almost half of the projected growth is related a rise of more than 4m in the population of England but with annual growth in car vehicle miles expected to slow to 0.4% by 2030 (LTT, 10 March, p9)
A revised forecast for Scotland is expected soon from Transport Scotland. The current modelled forecast for Scotland is 25% road vehicle mile growth between 2001 and 2021 but, with lesser population growth, a modelled forecast for 2010-35 may be well below 1% a year. This topic is proving controversial in the technical press with Professors Goodwin and Headicar, among others,
expressing severe reservations about model inputs producing results at variance with actual changes since the 1990s – especially a stabilisation of car traffic even with a rising English population and a GDP considerably larger in 2010 than in 1995. In contrast, rail passenger growth has been above forecasts with growing evidence of modal shift from cars especially in younger age-groups.
Behaviour change is seen as needing greater attention in possibly simplified modelling. Even in the revised forecasts for England, longer trips by car are expected to rise by a total of 4% between 2010 and 2035, comparing with a 33% rise in shorter trips. Much higher growth is expected in longer trips by rail while London in particular has challenged the basis for a 43% rise in road vehicle miles in London between 2010 and 2035. Real data on actual trends already suggests that car use for shorter trips is stable, rather than rising, in larger cities. Growth in city travel by car may therefore be much lower than the revised forecasts indicate. This has implications for the structure and level of transport investment, fares/charging and related appraisal.
Scottish new car sales in the new registration period from March were up 6.6% on the previous year, well above a 1.5% rise in N Ireland and 3% in England and Wales.
In 2011, recorded visits to Scottish tourist attractions rose by 4m to almost 47m with the top 10 all being city attractions apart from the Gretna Green Blacksmith’s Shop. Edinburgh bus tours ranked No 10 with 554,117 users (exclusive of use of the ordinary city bus network).
Jewel and Esk College has produced a report on a pilot project where 30 staff and students switched from normal to electric cars. Trips had averages just over 5 miles with running costs per mile being 3p compared to 17p for petrol cars (thought the latter includes a substantial fuel tax element not applying to electric vehicles). Capital costs of electric cars, even allowing for government grant, remain considerably higher than for petrol costs while battery life is also an issue.
BUSINESS & PERSONNEL
Paul McGowan, previously with Abellio, in the new First Bus project director for Scotland. Les Warneford, Stagecoach UK Bus MD is retiring in 2013 and will be replaced by Robert Montgomery service performance director at Stagecoach UK Bus. Scots-born Mr Montgomery, A Glasgow University graduate, was previously Dublin Buses MD and a director in Scotland with First Group.
In terms of market value, Perth-based Stagecoach has overtaken Aberdeen-based First Group. Stagecoach South-west Trains and its 49% share in Virgin Rail saw revenue rise 9% in the 40 weeks to 5 February with Stagecoach UK coach revenue up 3% in the same period. FirstGroup is using asset sales to reduce debt. Revenue from buses is up 1.5% over the year but static or falling in Scotland and the north of England. In real terms, revenue is down. With less frequent services, higher fares and reliability issues, passengers are travelling less, shifting to rail or back to car use. In the rail division of First, revenue is expected to be up 8.3%.