Generate greater awareness of transport's exposure to oil depletion
We need to prepare for a post-oil Scotland, not one increasingly dependent on foreign supplies of oil.
The oil strike at the Grangemouth oil refinery in April 2008, and the oil price spike of summer 2008, demonstrated just how exposed the Scottish transport sector is to security of oil supplies.
But people need to get used to petrol becoming more expensive: fossil fuels are scarce and finite, and as they get used up their price is certain to rise. In the context of soaring rates of demand from China and India, and with global oil supplies likely to reach their maximum at some point this decade, it should be no surprise to see British fuel prices go up. The challenge is to reduce dependence on fossil fuels as soon as possible.
The world is now approaching a critical point when global oil production reaches a maximum - and then begins to decline for evermore. That, put simply, is the phenomenon of ‘Peak Oil’. Peak Oil is now predicted by a growing number of analysts to occur between now and 2015; even the most optimistic predict Peak Oil to fall some time within the next 20 years. Global oil production matched discovery in the mid 1980s, and the world is now using four times more oil than is being discovered.
Adapting to the decline in oil supply will inevitably involve major changes in our transport and lifestyles. We don’t have to suffer, but it’s vital for all of us to be well informed about what we face, and what will be required to adapt our transport system to the new world of oil decline.
Only a few years ago, the threats from climate change had very low public consciousness – we now need to do the same for the challenge of Peak Oil.